The history of consumer spending runs parallel with the stock market, and with this stay-at-home economy being forced upon us through 2020 there is a significant amount of pent-up demand ready to be unloaded on the US economy through 2021.  Defeating the virus will be like winning a war, so the confidence and enthusiasm of US consumers will be the biggest story line of 2021, as individuals go on a spending spree through the second and third quarter, stimulus checks in hand.

All this pent-up demand will be set free in 2021 as we hope to see an effective vaccine efficiently being distributed in record time. The process scientist went through to create these vaccines is truly historic in terms of the development speed and innovation. This is a theme we have witnessed all year as businesses across most industries around the world have attempted to pivot and stay afloat during such a challenging time.

The innovation we are seeing is quicker and more dynamic than any other time in history and it has been an ‘all or nothing’ bet for certain businesses in beaten-down sectors. Many businesses have been forced to change their business model to accommodate the virus and this year will be a turning point to the way we do business and perform everyday activities, in that sense, we are forever changed.

The digital transformation of our economy has jumped five years in the space of six months, and we believe this innovation will continue especially in healthcare and biotech as money flows into gene-editing and vaccinations. A second area we believe will benefit is energy storage, as electric and renewable energy companies step up providing batteries that run for longer periods of time and charging stations get built across the country.

Most companies have now moved online thanks to the ease of artificial intelligence, and it is this same innovation that allows us to complete digital transaction with the push of a button. 2021 is an exciting time to be an investor as the transformation of our economy speeds up new investment trends will be born, but these areas all present risk as these are the new frontier and the future of our economy.

One thing we continue to watch very closely are political events as they unfold. The run-off’s in Georgia this week may set the tone of overall tax policy. Investors will be watching this very closely.

© Mahoney Asset Management

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